Potential range shifts of the morphotypes within the Anastrepha fraterculus complex (Diptera: Tephritidae): Implications under climate change scenarios

Abstract The South American fruit fly Anastrepha fraterculus is a cryptic species complex comprising at least eight morphotypes threatening fruit production across the Americas. We modelled the current and future potential distributions of the species complex and each morphotype. Filtered occurrence data ( n = 339) were analysed against six non‐collinear bioclimatic predictors. Ensemble models created with statistical and machine learning algorithms identified ~6 million km 2 of environmentally suitable area for the species complex, mainly in Brazil and Argentina. Morphotype‐level analyses revealed contrasting range extension and suitable areas: Brazilian‐1 exhibited the broadest distribution and environmental breadth, whereas Brazilian‐2 and Brazilian‐3 are restricted to coastal regions. High‐elevation morphotypes (Andean, Ecuadorian, Peruvian, Venezuelan) were strongly constrained by temperature, whereas the Mexican morphotype distribution was related to precipitation with significant potential for expansion into Central and North America. Future projections indicated overall contractions (18%–40%) of high‐suitability areas for the presence of the nominal species. We also detected southward range shifts and increased morphotype overlap in temperate regions. Nevertheless, the remaining highly suitable areas include current zones of high fruit production. Our results provide a morphotype‐explicit reference for anticipating invasion risk and support area‐wide integrated pest management strategies under climate change.