University advanced productive capability in China: Measurement, regional disparities, and spatial dynamics

Universities contribute to innovation-led development, yet assessing their capability upgrading across regions and time remains challenging. Drawing on the Triple Helix framework and retrospectively applying China’s new quality productive forces perspective, this study develops a university advanced productive capability (APC) index comprising Innovation Force, Technology Transfer Force, and Resource Force. Using data for 30 Chinese provinces (2002–2021), we combine entropy weighting, regional comparison, and exploratory spatial analysis. APC increased, but regional disparities persisted. Eastern China maintained its lead, Central China’s improvement did not narrow its gap with the East, Western China exhibited pronounced internal heterogeneity, and Northeastern China improved with fluctuations. Positive spatial association was most consistently significant under economic-distance weights, while the geographic distribution retained a stable northeast–southwest orientation. This study offers a multidimensional framework for assessing university capability upgrading and highlights the spatially uneven nature of higher-education innovation.