Spatial Mismatches Among Ecological Contribution, Economic Scale, and Fiscal Allocation: Implications for Sustainable Alpine Grassland Governance in Xizang

Regions that generate ecosystem services do not necessarily coincide with centers of economic activity or fiscal capacity, creating spatial challenges for ecological-product value realization. Using Xizang’s alpine grasslands as a case study, this study developed a framework linking ecological contribution, economic scale, fiscal allocation, and contextual governance conditions across seven prefecture-level administrative units. Grassland NPP for 2001–2024 was analyzed using OLS, Theil–Sen, and Mann–Kendall methods, while a harmonized 2024 dataset was used to calculate NPP-derived CO2 equivalent quantity, theoretical valuation benchmarks, and ecological–economic and fiscal alignment indices. Although 2024 was a high-productivity year, long-run ranking sensitivity showed that its spatial ordering was consistent with the 2001–2024 pattern. In 2024, total grassland NPP reached 85.94 Mt C, corresponding to 315.13 Mt of NPP-derived CO2 equivalent quantity and a domestic-price theoretical valuation benchmark of CNY 30.26 billion. Nagqu, Qamdo, and Shigatse accounted for 70.12% of ecological contribution. Robustness checks using alternative economic denominators, a grassland-area fiscal benchmark, and leave-one-prefecture-out tests showed that the strongest ecological-contribution/economic-scale contrasts were stable, whereas near-parity and fiscal-alignment classifications were more benchmark-dependent. The results show stable differences in the spatial distribution of ecological contribution, economic activity, and fiscal resources; they do not measure actual value flows or compensation adequacy. Separating these dimensions clarifies where ecological contribution and economic or fiscal capacity diverge across prefectures.