Measuring local resilience: A comparative analysis of crisis impacts using monthly data

While there are established methods for measuring regional economic resilience, a universally accepted approach for operationalizing accurate multivariate resilience applicable at the local level over several crises remains elusive. This study examines the impacts of the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine conflict on Finnish municipalities by analyzing local-scale resilience using monthly indicators. Whereas most resilience studies rely on annual data at broader regional levels (NUTS) potentially overlooking critical local developments, this study employs municipal (LAU-2) monthly data to capture short-term dynamics in unemployment, net migration, and job vacancies through the construction of a Local Resilience Index (LRI). The results show substantial variation in resilience across crises, geography, and municipal types, with increasing polarization and spatial clustering during more recent crises. Regression analyses indicate that resilience is a context-dependent and dynamic phenomenon, shaped by crisis-specific factors such as housing structure, education, entrepreneurship, and labour market conditions. Notably, only one consistent factor, stronger labour market structures, was associated with resilience across all crises. Findings highlight the complex nature of local resilience and underscore the limitations of one-size-fits-all strategies. They point to the need for place-based, longitudinal, and mixed-method approaches to better understand resilience at the local level.