The Distributional Consequences of Commodity Booms

This paper examines the response of income inequality to commodity price shocks and identifies the underlying mechanisms at play. I provide novel cross-country evidence from commodity-exporting nations, showing that positive commodity price shocks reduce labor income inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. This reduction in inequality is primarily driven by a fall in the skill premium, arising from the expansion of unskilled-labor-intensive sectors, such as construction, which grow more rapidly than skilled-labor-intensive ones, such as services. To interpret these results, I develop a quantitative multisector small-open-economy model that incorporates sectoral heterogeneity in both skilled-labor intensity and sensitivity to commodity price shocks. I use the model as a laboratory to explore the distributional impacts of various policy responses to commodity windfalls, demonstrating how saving or spending these gains can either reinforce or moderate the reduction in inequality. This analysis provides new insights into the broader economic and social impacts of commodity price shocks in emerging markets.