New Quality Productive Forces and Pollution–Carbon Reduction Synergy: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

Against the background of China simultaneously pursuing the dual strategic goals of “fundamental improvement in ecological environment quality” and “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,” exploring whether new quality productive forces—as a new engine for high-quality economic development—can effectively foster pollution–carbon reduction synergies has become a critical and urgent issue. Based on a panel dataset of Chinese A-share manufacturing listed firms spanning from 2010 to 2023, this study empirically examines the impact of new quality productive forces on enterprise pollution–carbon reduction synergy efficiency (Synergy) by integrating a super-efficiency Slack-Based Measure (SBM) model with undesirable outputs, the entropy weight method (EWM), and a two-way fixed effects model. The results reveal that NPI significantly enhances corporate synergy efficiency, a finding that remains robust after addressing lagged effects, winsorization of extreme values, and potential endogeneity issues. Mechanism analysis indicates that green technological innovation (GTI) and energy efficiency (EE) enhancement serve as two vital transmission channels driving these synergistic gains. Heterogeneity analysis further discloses that NPI’s promoting effect is more pronounced among high-pollution-intensity and high-carbon-intensity enterprises, implying that firms under greater environmental governance pressure with broader scope for green transformation capture higher marginal environmental returns from NPI development. By expanding the environmental impacts of NPI from isolated pollution or carbon abatement to synergistic governance, this study provides firm-level empirical evidence for the green and low-carbon transition of the manufacturing sector, as well as practical insights for designing and implementing differentiated environmental policies.