Spatial Spillover Effects of Drought Disasters on Grain Yields: Evidence from 31 Chinese Provinces

Abstract Drought disasters are the most severe natural disasters affecting China’s grain yields, characterized by prolonged duration and extensive impact. Under the integrity of the ecosystem and the interaction among factors, drought not only directly affects grain yields in the affected areas, but also further influences grain yields in neighboring regions by changing agricultural production conditions. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1989 to 2023, this paper employs Moran’s I to analyze the spatial autocorrelation and agglomeration characteristics of grain yields. The spatial Durbin model is further utilized to examine the spatial spillover effects of drought disasters on grain yields and their regional heterogeneity. The empirical results reveal significant spatial autocorrelation in grain yields, with local characteristics of high–high and low–low agglomeration. Drought disasters exert a significant inhibitory effect on grain yields and generate negative spillover effects that transcend administrative boundaries, impacting surrounding regions. These effects exhibit pronounced regional heterogeneity: from the perspective of economic development, significant spillover effects are observed in the eastern and northeastern regions, but not in the central region. In terms of industrial attributes, the intensity of spillover effects is greater in major grain-producing areas compared to nonmajor grain-producing areas. The findings of this paper provide insights for integrating disaster response into the national food security industrial belt planning, enabling a closed-loop management framework that encompasses “disaster impact, spatial transmission, and policy response.”