The Role of Identity-Related Issues in Partisan Shifts Among White Americans, 2016–2020

ABSTRACT During the 2020 US presidential election, identity-related issues—immigration, racial justice, and white identity—were central to public discourse. This study examines how these issues shaped shifts in partisanship among white Americans who changed their affiliation from 2016 to 2020. Using American National Election Study panel data, we analyze how attitudes toward immigration, the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement, and white identity relate to Democratic Party, Republican Party, and Independent affiliations. We find that stronger white identity and restrictive immigration views increased the likelihood of switching to the Republican Party, whereas support for BLM increased the likelihood of identifying as a Democrat. These findings suggest identity-related issues played a key role in reshaping partisan alignments, especially in strengthening the Republican Party’s identity-based appeal.