Crédito rural, fronteiras produtivas e externalidades espaciais: uma análise do FNO no Norte do Brasil

This study evaluates the effects of agricultural credit on agricultural production and labor productivity in municipalities in the Northern region of Brazil, with a focus on the Constitutional Fund for Financing the North (FNO). The analysis covers 450 municipalities from 2002 to 2021. The Spatial Durbin Error Model (SDEM) was used to capture the direct and indirect spatial effects of agricultural credit. The results indicate a positive direct impact of FNO credit on the gross value added of agriculture. The effect on labor productivity is also positive, although lower than that observed with BNDES credit. The spatial effects indicate positive externalities associated with BNDES credit in neighboring municipalities.