Impact of Real Estate Risks on Commercial Complexes Investment in Emerging Markets: A Conceptual Review

This paper examines the impact of real estate risks on commercial complexes investment within emerging urban markets, with particular reference to Bida, Nigeria, which was motivated by the growing importance of commercial real estate in supporting urban economic activity and the increasing uncertainty surrounding investment outcomes in developing market contexts. The study explores how economic, market, financial, operational, and environmental risks influence key investment performance indicators such as rental income, occupancy rates, and returns on investment. It adopted a systematic literature review approach through the search of major academic databases and repositories using defined keywords and Boolean operators, where from an initial pool of twenty-eight (28) records, nineteen (19) high-quality sources, published primarily between 2007 and 2025 and supplemented by seminal theoretical works, were selected based on clear inclusion and exclusion criteria and subjected to thematic synthesis. The review shows that, unlike structured real estate markets in major cities, emerging environments like Bida are characterised by pronounced informality, weak institutional frameworks, and limited availability of reliable data. These conditions heighten exposure to risk and distort market signals that guide investment decisions. Drawing on Modern Portfolio Theory and risk assessment models, the study develops a context-sensitive explanation of how risks translate into investment performance outcomes. It concludes that real estate risks operate through both direct and indirect effects and recommends the adoption of integrated, context-specific risk management frameworks. The paper contributes to the existing literature by extending real estate risk analysis into under-researched secondary cities.