Which Indian Oil and Gas Blocks Are Most Likely to Succeed? Registered Forecasts for OALP Rounds IX and XI

This note registers, on 14 October 2026, forecasts of the chance of a hydrocarbon discovery for all 21 blocks of India's OALP-XI round and all 28 blocks of the OALP-IX round, so that they can later be checked against real outcomes. The forecasts come from a proprietary discovery-chance model. In back-tests on past wildcat wells it ranked successful wells above dry ones with an AUC of 0.62–0.68 in Norway, Australia and Brazil, and 0.74 on India's 162 NELP blocks; on OALP blocks it had never seen, the AUC was 0.64. For an earlier check, it also lists 17 wildcat wells in Norway, Brazil and Australia whose results are due in late 2026 and early 2027. The method is not disclosed; a cryptographic hash of the sealed method archive is published instead (see "Method disclosure"), so that priority can be proven later without revealing the method now.