Diagnosing Spatial Network Coupling Mismatches: Policy Priorities for New Quality Productive Forces and Urban Resilience in the Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration

Against the backdrop of high-quality development, diagnosing coupling mismatches between new quality productive forces and urban resilience is crucial for sustainable, resilient regional growth. This study diagnoses these spatial network mismatches across the Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration (CCUA, 2011–2023) using a comprehensive index system, coupling coordination degree and spatial gravity models, and social network analysis. Results show the following: (1) coupling coordination rose steadily, forming a “dual-core-led, multi-tiered”spatial pattern with narrowing disparities; policy support, factor agglomeration, and infrastructure upgrading were positively associated with coordination, whereas path dependence and limited factor mobility were associated with lagging coordination in peripheral cities; (2) the spatial structure evolved toward a polycentric pattern, with Chengdu and Chongqing as cores and cities such as Mianyang and Deyang as key nodes. Although this shift indicates a move toward multi-polar balance, connectivity between secondary nodes and the dual cores remains weak, posing a persistent constraint on overall synergy; (3) the spatial correlation network grew more connected but less efficient, indicating a transition from “efficiency-first” to an “efficiency–resilience balance” configuration. Functional differentiation revealed net spillover blocks, net benefit blocks, and bidirectional spillover blocks, yet weak intra-block linkages remain a key obstacle to effective cross-regional spillovers. Accordingly, this study proposes three policy priorities: strengthening connectivity between the dual cores and secondary nodes while enhancing the hub functions of “structural-bridge” cities; activating both intra-block and inter-block spillovers through cross-administrative transfer platforms and two-way benefit-sharing mechanisms; and providing differentiated—rather than uniform—support to constrained peripheral nodes within an institutionalized, multi-level coordination framework, so as to advance resilient and high-quality regional development in the CCUA.