CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for the Global Emissions Scenario Simulation of the 2°C-Target Aligned with China’s Net-Zero Pathway

Abstract Achieving net-zero emissions is critical for the 2°C-target set forth by the Paris Agreement. This paper presents a dataset under a sector-specific combined scenario (SSP2-com), which integrates recent national climate commitments, including China’s carbon neutrality pledge. The simulation, performed with the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model, finite-volume version 3 (CAS-FGOALS-f3-L) model, covers 2015–2100 and provides 52 variables at monthly, daily, and sub-daily resolutions, all interpolated onto a 1° × 1° grid. A preliminary analysis shows that under the SSP2-com scenario, global mean surface air temperature is projected to peak around midcentury, stabilizing at 2.02°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, a 0.81°C reduction relative to SSP2-4.5 (2.83°C). Regional precipitation patterns show significant variability, with increases found mainly in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Projected changes in the annual maximum temperature are more spatially homogeneous and of lesser magnitude than mean warming, whereas increases in extreme precipitation are widespread but exhibit fine-scale heterogeneity. Overall, under the SSP2-com scenario, the top-of-atmosphere net radiation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are stronger than those under the SSP1-2.6 scenario but weaker than those under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, for both 2061–80 and 2081–2100. However, the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon under the SSP2-com scenario shows little difference from that under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios. This dataset facilitates an understanding of the fundamental characteristics of future climate change under this scenario and thus serves as a reference for formulating near-term climate policies.