Spatial correlation characteristics and dynamic evolutionary research of logistics resilience associated with new quality productivity: the case of six provinces in Central China

Abstract Against the backdrop of new quality productive forces, this study investigates the developmental trajectory of logistics resilience across the six provinces of central China. Drawing on the dual perspectives of regional economic resilience and evolutionary resilience, an evaluation indicator system is constructed comprising five dimensions: resistance, adaptation, recovery, adjustment, and new types of productive forces, utilizing data from 2010 to 2022. The entropy weight method is employed to measure logistics resilience levels, while a modified gravity model and social network analysis are used to decode the topological structure of the spatial association network. Furthermore, a Markov chain model is applied to analyze its dynamic evolution patterns. The results indicate that: (1) Under the new quality productive forces perspective, logistics resilience in the six provinces has grown steadily, with the mean value increasing from 0.10420 in 2010 to 0.38964 in 2022, representing an average annual growth rate of 11.66%. Notably, the new quality productive forces diension carries a weight of 0.4995, identifying it as the core driver of resilience enhancement. (2) Social network analysis reveals an overall network density of 0.267, which is at a moderate level with significant room for optimization. The network structure exhibits marked non-equilibrium, with Anhui, Henan, and Hunan provinces serving as the core nodes. (3) Dynamic evolution analysis shows that logistics resilience is characterized by significant path dependence, with the probability of maintaining the same state exceeding 60%, while the likelihood of “leapfrog” transitions remains low. Future efforts should focus on leveraging the spillover effects of new quality productive forces and strengthening regional spatial synergy to enhance the dynamic adaptability of the logistics resilience system in central China.