Economic uncertainty and fertility cycles: baby boom and busts in twentieth century USA
Abstract Using variation across US counties and states in the volatility of income growth over the course of the twentieth century, we identify a negative effect of economic uncertainty on fertility. Our findings contribute to the unraveling of the determinants of the post-WWII baby boom: the decline in economic uncertainty endured by women born in 1910 compared to that of those born in 1933 can account for an increase in fertility by 0.4 to 0.6 child, which is about 45% to 67.5% of the change across these cohorts.
Authors
- Bastien Chabé-Ferret (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1365-7442)
- Paula E. Gobbi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6647-2030)
Institutions
- Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE)
- Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LU)
- Middlesex University London (GB)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Journal of Economic Growth
- Published
- 2026-10-15
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-026-09273-x
- Primary Topic
- Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Université Catholique de Louvain
- Université du Luxembourg
- University of Hawai'i
- Iowa State University
- University of Essex
- Economic History Society
- University of Bath
- University of Sussex
- Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS
- Sorbonne Université
- Economic and Social Research Council
- European Research Council