Measuring Food Security Vulnerability in a Water‐Scarce World: Introducing the Food Security Vulnerability Index ( FSVI ) for Sustainable Global Food Systems

ABSTRACT As global water scarcity intensifies, virtual water trade has become a vital necessity for balancing national hydrological gaps. Yet, traditional food security measures frequently ignore the compound structural risks emerging from low domestic production and trade reliance. This research introduces the Food Security Vulnerability Index (FSVI), a multidimensional index evaluated across 166 nations for four strategic cereals (wheat, rice, maize, barley). To operationalize this index, the FSVI employs a multiplicative structure anchored in the Theory of Compound Risk, synergistically coupling domestic production deficits (1 − FSSR) with external hydrological dependencies. This index is further validated through a rigorous four‐stage panel econometric procedure to isolate the long‐term structural drivers of vulnerability. Findings show that on a 0–100 scale, territories like Bahrain and Hong Kong exhibit a maximum FSVI of 100, indicating extreme vulnerability and total separation of food security from local hydrological resources. Conversely, hydrological sovereigns like Australia (0.05) and the United States (0.07) show near‐zero vulnerability. Crucially, our between‐effects econometric model reveals that arable land availability is the dominant structural driver for long‐term resilience. This exposes a profound wealth paradox where high‐income arid nations (e.g., Kuwait, Saudi Arabia) use significant GDP to hide their extreme exposure. While economic power prevents immediate hunger, the FSVI reveals a latent vulnerability to global trade shocks. Ultimately, fundamental reduction of vulnerability depends on physical land endowments rather than financial wealth alone.