Serendipity and innovation in new ventures: The moderating role of primary investor type

Rather than pure luck or a fully planned search, opportunities in new ventures frequently emerge from serendipitous discoveries. While research has emphasized the antecedents of serendipity, empirical evidence on its innovation outcomes remains scarce. Drawing on social cognitive theory, we argue that serendipity’s value depends on environmental conditions, which shape whether unexpected discoveries are recognized and translated into venture-level action. Analyzing survey data from 386 founders and CXOs of new ventures in Western and Northern Europe, we find that serendipity is positively associated with innovation radicalness and speed. These relationships are contingent on investor type: Compared with bootstrapped ventures, the positive associations are weaker in ventures backed by venture capitalists, business angels, or family and friends. These findings advance our understanding of serendipity’s contingent value in early-stage entrepreneurship and highlight investor dynamics as a boundary condition shaping innovation trajectories.