LAB #4093 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 32.8 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 32.8% (+0.2pp, n=201) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the current live window would have excluded trades whose entry phase fell outside that band. Reviewing the listed trades, most entries cluster near extremes (e.g., GBPUSD LONG at 1.35301, USDJPY SHORT at 160.187) — likely outside the 5–10° band, so 6–7 of the 10 trades would have been filtered out. The remaining 3–4 trades (e.g., EURUSD LONG, GBPUSD SHORT) include both wins and losses, so the net PnL delta is ambiguous — possibly slightly positive if the filtered losses (NZDUSD SHORT, XAUUSD SHORT) are removed, but the sample is too small to confirm. Expected win-rate shift in this window: roughly +0 to +5 percentage points, but with high variance due to n≈10. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the +0.2pp improvement from n=201 backtes Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-15
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23385280
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
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LAB #4093 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 32.8 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

LAB #4093 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 32.8 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.6% to 32.8% (+0.2pp, n=201) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the current live window would have excluded trades whose entry phase fell outside that band. Reviewing the listed trades, most entries cluster near extremes (e.g., GBPUSD LONG at 1.35301, USDJPY SHORT at 160.187) — likely outside the 5–10° band, so 6–7 of the 10 trades would have been filtered out. The remaining 3–4 trades (e.g., EURUSD LONG, GBPUSD SHORT) include both wins and losses, so the net PnL delta is ambiguous — possibly slightly positive if the filtered losses (NZDUSD SHORT, XAUUSD SHORT) are removed, but the sample is too small to confirm. Expected win-rate shift in this window: roughly +0 to +5 percentage points, but with high variance due to n≈10. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the +0.2pp improvement from n=201 backtes Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
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