Pre-registration: Out-of-Sample Test of a Quantum-Like Collapse-Chain Model against Classical Hidden Markov Models on XAUUSD Hourly Data (January–September 2026)

Pre-registration of a single confirmatory out-of-sample test. The hypothesis, frozen model parameters (fitted on 2024–2025 XAUUSD H1 data), classical comparator, test statistic and decision rule are fixed before any 2026 test data are processed. The record contains the registration document (PDF), the frozen parameters (JSON) and the test script (Python). SHA-256 hashes of the JSON and script are listed in Section 9 of the PDF. Version 2 supersedes version 1. It adds a seasonally adjusted condition (V2-SA) to the decision rule, introduced after calibration simulations and before any 2026 data were processed; see Section 8 of the PDF.