Food Insecurity and the Fortunate Index as Potential Indicators of Recoverability Following a Rapid‐Onset Disaster

ABSTRACT Local government should inform citizens if they live in disaster‐prone areas. The local government should indicate that it has the resources available to help predict and recover from a potential disaster. Data in the public domain, such as Population Census and Household Survey data, can be used to assess the recoverability of at‐risk areas within a local government without incurring additional data‐collection costs. This will enable local authorities to implement risk‐mitigation programmes to respond to rapid‐onset disasters and provide timely assistance to those in need. In most instances, people in these vulnerable areas are not resilient to catastrophes such as floods, fires and droughts. To assess a community's recoverability, two indices were used: the Fortunate Index and the Food Insecurity Index. The Fortunate Index, loosely based on Bhutan's National Happiness Index, comprises 11 indicators drawn from the 2011 Census, selected by interviewees as indicators of their sense of being fortunate. The Food Insecurity Index in South Africa is based on the FAO's Food Insecurity Experience Scale. Areas of food insecurity and ill fortune are identified and analysed to derive indices of communities' ability to recover from a rapid‐onset disaster. Additional data, such as flood lines and fire risk categories, are used to plan for mitigative activities. This paper developed a set of indicators to assess a community's capacity to recover, ranging from very low recoverability to high recoverability, based on food security and fortunateness, and to inform local authorities in reacting to and reducing disaster risk and developing appropriate measures such as placing emergency services close to these identified areas, to provide better housing over the long term away from flood prone areas and stricter enforcement of not developing below the 1:100‐year flood line. These activities can contribute to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities.