A cultural transmission explanation for the Little Divergence: The shock of the Black Death

Before the Industrial Revolution, Northwestern Europe was characterized by late marriage under the European Marriage Pattern (EMP) and persistently high wages, two central features of the Little Divergence. Yet individuals following the EMP had fewer children, raising the question of how this norm could persist. We develop a cultural-transmission model to address this puzzle. Holding cultural composition fixed, higher wages raise fertility for both cultural types. Over time, however, sustained high wages increase the prevalence of the lower-fertility EMP type. This cultural-composition effect reduces average fertility and population pressure, thereby helping sustain high wages. The resulting feedback generates a weak-EMP/low-wage equilibrium and a strong-EMP/high-wage equilibrium. We further argue that regional differences in the severity of the Black Death shifted European societies between these equilibria. Regions with larger population losses experienced more persistent labor scarcity and high wages, allowing the EMP to spread and persist. The model therefore explains the joint persistence of late marriage and high wages in Northwestern Europe.