Mobility Tourism and Capital Formation in the Albania–Greece Corridor

We assess two Albania–Greece corridor channels: visitor expenditure in Greece and Greece-origin finance potentially supporting Albanian capital formation. Bilateral visitor-receipt data complement immediate-partner direct investment liability transactions matched to nominal capital formation over 48 quarters (2014–2025), annual household transfers and two-direction travel receipts. The 2005–2025 framework retains thirteen outcomes and sensitivities for 68 allocated Albanian entry quarters. Greek contemporaneous visitor-receipt associations are positive, but bounds calculations and diagnostics do not establish cointegration. Across 44 forecast targets, lagged visitors do not demonstrate improved Greek receipt forecasts under full-window primary log-error measures. Albanian visitor-investment estimates include negative, allocation-sensitive results. Originally, a EUR 10 million increase in lagged direct investment liability transactions was associated with 0.861 nominal capital formation log-growth points (95 percent reference interval: −0.371 to 2.094). Four- and twelve-quarter sensitivities show sample-dependent signs. Twelve-lag joint tests depend on controls, whole-window sums remain imprecise, and residual serial correlation prevents reliable financial-transmission inference. Annual evidence establishes household resources and bidirectional spending, not investment use. This falsifiable two-channel assessment distinguishes recorded finance from real, additional investment. Neither a financing multiplier, investment predominance over consumption, stable long-run elasticity nor national-benefit ranking is established.