LAB #4105 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.6% to 37.3% ( — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.6% to 37.3% (+4.7pp, n=110) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the DISTRIBUTION-phase filter over the current 10-trade window would have blocked the two wkjudas LOSSES (GBPUSD LONG, USDJPY SHORT) and the rizzy5m XAUUSD SHORT LOSS, all of which likely fell outside a distribution phase. It would also have blocked the AUDUSD SHORT via rizzy7m (currently open, unknown outcome) and the NZDUSD SHORT via wkjudas (status "open" but likely still running). That removes 5 of 10 trades, leaving 2 wins, 1 loss, and 2 opens — a raw win rate improvement from ~33% to ~67% on closed trades, but with a drastically reduced sample (n=5) and no PnL delta calculable because the blocked trades include both winners and losers. The filter would have avoided the two clear losses but also forfeited the NZDUSD SHORT win, so net PnL effect is ambiguous and likely near zero in Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-10-15
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23385554
- Primary Topic
- Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Type
- preprint