Heat as a push factor? Examining the relationship between urban heat island and residential mobility in San Antonio, USA

Abstract Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is a key manifestation of urban climate change that disproportionately burdens vulnerable populations in rapidly growing cities. While prior research has identified associations between heat exposure and relocation, the spatial nuances of intra-urban heat disparities and their relationship with residential mobility remain under-explored. Focusing on San Antonio, Texas, this study links geocoded household records from Data Axle with 30-meter Landsat-derived land surface temperature (LST) to identify block-group UHI exposure and defines mobility as an inter-annual address change. Using exploratory spatial analysis and mixed-effects logistic regression with block-group random intercepts and socio-economic and demographic controls, we examine the statistical associations between block-group UHI exposure and household mobility. Results show that UHI zones are concentrated in socio-economically disadvantaged central neighborhoods. Moreover, average residential tenure is longer and mobility rates are significantly lower in UHI areas. Regression analyses further reveal that, even after controlling for socio-economic and demographic characteristics, households in UHI zones exhibit significantly lower probabilities of moving, suggesting a pattern of spatial immobility associated with UHI exposure. Interaction results show socially differentiated immobility: within UHI areas, higher-income and younger households exhibit lower mobility probabilities, broadly aligning with theoretical expectations from cost–benefit and in-situ adaptation frameworks, while among younger households, limited accumulated wealth may also be associated with constrained access to relocation options. These findings suggest that observed residential stability in UHI areas may reflect systemic constraints rather than simply elective adaptation. This underscores the need for equitable heat adaptation strategies that move beyond individual behavioral changes to integrate urban cooling interventions with housing affordability and systemic land-use governance.