Proyeksi Pariwisata Indonesia 2026-2030: Relevansi RPJMN 2025-2029

Penelitian ini menyajikan proyeksi kinerja pariwisata Indonesia 2026-2030 dan menilai relevansinya terhadap sasaran RPJMN 2025-2029. Masalah utama yang dikaji ialah apakah tren eksisting dapat memenuhi target 2029 pada kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara, perjalanan wisatawan nusantara, investasi, devisa, dan rasio PDB pariwisata. Artikel ini mengintegrasikan lima indikator kinerja pariwisata dalam satu kerangka forecast kebijakan. Metode yang digunakan adalah linear regression forecast berbasis data pemulihan 2023-2025, sedangkan seri 2016-2025 dipakai untuk menempatkan proyeksi dalam konteks siklus pra-pandemi, krisis, dan pemulihan. Periode COVID-19 2020-2022 dikeluarkan dari estimasi karena merupakan disrupsi pasar dan berpotensi menimbulkan bias struktural. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa pada 2029 kunjungan wisman diproyeksikan mencapai 22,93 juta, wisnus 1,92 miliar perjalanan, investasi Rp126,08 triliun, devisa US$27,03 miliar, dan rasio PDB pariwisata 5,00%. Dengan demikian, target RPJMN relatif terpenuhi untuk kunjungan wisman, wisnus, investasi, dan rasio PDB, tetapi belum untuk devisa. Kontribusi utama artikel ini adalah menyediakan baseline kuantitatif yang mengaitkan forecast pariwisata dengan gap kebijakan RPJMN. This study presents projections for Indonesia’s tourism performance from 2026 to 2030 and assesses their relevance to the targets of the 2025–2029 National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN). The main issue examined is whether current trends can meet the 2029 targets for international tourist arrivals, domestic tourist trips, investment, foreign exchange earnings, and the tourism-to-GDP ratio. This article integrates five tourism performance indicators into a single policy forecasting framework. The method used is a linear regression forecast based on recovery data from 2023–2025, while the 2016–2025 time series is used to place the projections within the context of the pre-pandemic, crisis, and recovery cycles. The 2020–2022 COVID-19 period was excluded from the estimates because it represented a market disruption and had the potential to introduce structural bias. The results show that by 2029, international tourist arrivals are projected to reach 22.93 million, domestic tourist trips 1.92 billion, investment Rp126.08 trillion, foreign exchange earnings US$27.03 billion, and the tourism-to-GDP ratio 5.00%. This means, the RPJMN targets are relatively met for international tourist arrivals, domestic tourist trips, investment, and the GDP ratio, but not yet for foreign exchange earnings. The main contribution of this article is to provide a quantitative baseline that links tourism forecasts to the RPJMN policy gap.