European Energy-Driven Biorefinery Perspectives to 2050 for Maritime Transport Through Georeferenced Bioresource Data, Technological Assessment and Scenarios

This study assesses the long-term potential of European biorefineries toward 2050 by combining georeferenced bioresource data, regulatory eligibility, and technological performance across the EU-27. It links spatially explicit biomass availability with RED-compliant biofuel pathways, distinguishing between options that can be deployed immediately and those with greater long-term scaling potential. The results indicate that maritime biofuel production is strongly shaped by regional resource endowment. Used cooking oil supports only limited production of FAME and HEFA, with modest outputs concentrated in a few highly urbanized or industrialized areas. In contrast, lignocellulosic and wet biomass pathways offer much larger and more geographically distributed potentials. Methanol from gasification and synthesis, liquefied biomethane, liquefied biohydrogen, and microbial-oil-based routes emerge as the most scalable options, supported by regions rich in agricultural residues, forestry resources, municipal organic waste, and manure. Quantitatively, methanol shows the highest standalone potential, reaching about 19.17 Mtoe/y. Liquefied biomethane and liquefied biohydrogen can reach about 23.74 Mtoe/y and 21.37 Mtoe/y, respectively. By comparison, FAME and HEFA reach 18.57 Mtoe/y and 17.92 Mtoe/y, although only about 0.99 Mtoe/y and 0.96 Mtoe/y come directly from used cooking oil. The most promising hotspots are located in Spain, France, Germany, Poland, Romania, northern Italy, northern Finland, and parts of eastern Europe. Overall, the findings show that Europe’s maritime biofuel supply will depend on a strong match between regional feedstock availability, conversion pathway, and regulatory suitability, making a portfolio-based strategy essential.