Stability and Change in China’s Digital Governance Policy: A Bibliometrics-Based Punctuated Equilibrium Analysis Framework

China’s digital governance encompasses both the use of digital technologies in public governance and the governance of digital development. It is a key fulcrum for the systematic reconstruction of China’s governance system and an important measure to enhance governance levels and promote the transformation of government functions. However, systematic analyses of China’s multilevel digital governance policy system remain limited, particularly regarding its evolutionary trajectory, core features and existing gaps. To address these problems, we construct a bibliometrics-based punctuated equilibrium analysis framework to unpack the dynamic progression of China’s digital governance policy system. The analysis covers 6309 policy documents issued between January 2000 and 19 May 2025. We used rule-based natural language processing to identify policy targets and instruments, constructed weighted co-occurrence networks of policy targets, co-issuing agencies, and target–instrument pairs, and calculated eigenvector centrality. We then examined the policy system across four stages and three dimensions: policy targets, policy-issuing agencies, and policy mixes. Finally, we identified changes in the prominence and configuration of targets, institutions, and instruments while also revealing limitations in the existing policy system. The findings provide insights for improving digital governance policies and extend the explanatory scope of punctuated equilibrium theory in a non-Western institutional context.