Do nominal formations retain their spatial distinctiveness during attacking sequences ending in goals? A spatiotemporal analysis of the 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3, and 4-4-2 formations

The objective of this study was twofold: firstly, to examine whether nominally distinct tactical formations remained spatially distinguishable or progressively converged towards similar collective spatial configurations as an open-play goal approached; and secondly, to determine how the spatial organisation of each formation changed relative to its own match-average configuration over the same pre-goal period. The data were obtained from 306 Bundesliga matches (2016–17), comprising 247 open-play goal-scoring sequences. The final 60-s prior to each goal were divided into four consecutive 15-s intervals. Spatial configurations were examined across these intervals, at the goal moment, and relative to each team's match-average spatial configuration. Spatial similarity was quantified using normalised Euclidean distances and panel data models. In addition, supervised machine learning was employed to assess whether nominal formations remained distinguishable based solely on spatial configurations. The spatial similarity of the match-average configurations of formations varied markedly across the pre-goal period. At the moment of the goal, similarity reached only .14 for the 4-2-3-1, .10 for the 4-3-3, and .00 for the 4-4-2 (p < .001). The formations showed limited spatial distinguishability. Accuracies were below 60%, with the lowest value of 29% observed between the 4-3-3 and 4-4-2 formations. Only one formation demonstrated 71% accuracy. Overall, machine learning revealed that there was limited spatial distinguishability among the nominal formations. In summary, the reduced distinguishability between nominal formations may indicate a tendency towards greater structural similarity in goal-scoring situations. These findings provide a novel perspective on the conceptualisation and interpretation of tactical formations in modern football.