Canopy-Moisture Memory in Anatolian Black Pine Forests Under Climate Warming: An Assessment Based on Landsat Time Series

Climate stress in forest ecosystems may not always manifest as a linear decline in mean vegetation indices but may instead emerge through shifts in temporal dependence. We evaluated interannual canopy-moisture memory in three Anatolian black pine (Pinus nigra subsp. pallasiana) stands on Sandras Mountain using Landsat-derived seasonal canopy-moisture change (ΔNDMI) from 1985 to 2021: a protected late-successional reference stand (Site A), an adjacent management-influenced mature stand (Site B), and a distant management-influenced mature stand (Site C). Linear mixed-effects models tested whether the Lag-1 ΔNDMI effect, representing carry-over of previous-year moisture conditions, differed among sites and changed after the 2005 Pettitt breakpoint in late-season minimum temperature. Despite post-break warming of +0.80–0.87 °C, no significant ΔNDMI trend was detected at any site. In contrast, the Lag-1 × post-break interaction was negative and significant (β ≈ −0.04, p < 0.001). Site A maintained a positive memory; Site B shifted to a negative post-break slope; and Site C remained positive but weakened. These patterns persisted after topographic adjustment and in the matched Site A–Site B analysis. Lag-2 was not significant, suggesting a one-year signal. Overall, interannual canopy-moisture memory may provide a complementary dimension for monitoring temporal ecosystem responses not captured by mean spectral-index trends.