A multi-model analysis of hydrogen uptake in a climate-neutral Europe
Using an ensemble of integrated assessment models, we quantify the role of hydrogen in Europe’s energy transition under multiple climate policy scenarios. Hydrogen uptake in our net-zero scenario varies widely across models, ranging from 0.3 to 11.7 exajoules (average 4 exajoules) by 2050 and corresponding to 1-14% (average 7%) of final energy consumption, primarily in industry and synthetic fuel production. Hydrogen contributes minimally to electricity generation, and its direct use in transport and buildings remains limited. Despite projected carbon dioxide prices of 150–250 euros per tonne by 2030, hydrogen adoption remains below 2% (7 million tonnes) of final energy consumption, far below the European Union’s 2030 target of 20 million tonnes of green hydrogen from domestic production and imports. Hydrogen trade is scarcely modelled and therefore underrepresented. Our results support prioritizing near-term electrification while preparing strategically today for large-scale hydrogen expansion after 2040. Across multiple European energy models, deep decarbonization relies on strong early electrification, while hydrogen expands mainly after 2040 in hard-to-abate sectors; stronger policy support is essential for robust net-zero pathways.
Authors
- Behnam Zakeri (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9647-2878)
- Amirhossein Fattahi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0717-2257)
- Maria Kannavou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0538-6534)
- Panagiotis F. Fragkos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3596-0661)
- Emir Fejzić (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2489-8455)
- Igor Tatarewicz
- Will Usher (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9367-1791)
- Bob van der Zwaan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5871-7643)
- Francesco Dalla Longa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6390-9842)
- Sonja Sechi
- Muhammad Awais (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6853-758X)
- Francesco Davide Sanvito (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9152-9684)
- Harmen Sytze de Boer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7376-2581)
- Daniel Huppmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7729-7389)
- Mark Dekker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3543-6889)
- Renato Rodrigues (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5863-5514)
- Stefan Pfenninger (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8420-9498)
- Michał Lewarski
- Robert Pietzcker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9403-6711)
- Mobi van der Linden (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3286-3169)
Institutions
- Vienna University of Economics and Business (AT)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (NL)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Institute of Environmental Protection (PL)
- Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center (IT)
- Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- KTH Royal Institute of Technology (SE)
- University of Amsterdam (NL)
- Delft University of Technology (NL)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2026-10-15
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-78681-9
- Primary Topic
- Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- European Commission
- Universiteit van Amsterdam