Overproduction and Structural Imbalance in the Russian Dairy Market

The Russian dairy market in 2024–2025 demonstrated a structural paradox. While the dairy production peaked at 26.7 million tons, the domestic demand stagnated, accumulating 73.5 thousand tons of unsold dairy stocks (+9%). Traditional industry models fail to treat overproduction as an independent market factor, and its quantitative assessment is absent from the scientific literature. This article describes the phenomenon of structural imbalance between marketable milk production and effective demand in the Russian dairy market during 2024–2025, as well as assesses its impact on consumer demand polarization and the industry’s long-term potential, taking into account demographic risks. The study relied on data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Agriculture, Soyuzmoloko, and NielsenIQ for 2021–2025 (n = 85 regions). The methodology included chain substitution factor analysis, benchmark scenario analysis, commodity-resource balance modeling, Pearson’s correlation, absolute structural difference coefficients, income elasticity of demand analysis, and component analysis of demographic effects. The realized production increase for 2021–2025 amounted to 3.2 million tons. The benchmark scenario (EU productivity – 9,000 kg/year) revealed a theoretical potential for an additional growth of 4.1 million tons, capturing the barrier function of demand and processing capacity. A negative correlation was found between production and demand (r = –0.65), verifying the structural nature of overproduction. The squared coefficient of structural shifts (11.36% on Ryabtsev scale) confirmed market bifurcation: growth in the budget (+5 pp) and premium (+8 pp) segments alongside a contraction in the middle segment (–13 pp). The cumulative decline in domestic demand by 2030 was projected at 4.0–11.1% (0.38–1.07 million tons) due to demographic factors. State support needs to shift from gross production growth toward developing processing and export infrastructure, alongside implementing a dual product mix policy. The research results may be of interest to producers, retailers, and dairy market regulators.