A Scenario-Based Approach to Optimizing the Investment Portfolio of a Gas-Condensate Asset Under Decarbonization Constraints

Decarbonization requires oil and gas companies to combine gas-monetization projects with measures to improve operational efficiency and reduce emissions. This study develops a scenario-based approach to portfolio selection for a gas-condensate asset, accounting for economic value, risk, net gas-resource requirements, and carbon effects. Projects are evaluated relative to baseline pipeline gas sales. Within-scenario uncertainty is represented using triangular distributions and Latin hypercube sampling. Feasible portfolios are generated by exhaustive enumeration, followed by Pareto selection and risk-adjusted ranking. The synthetic model-based application considers six project solutions, generating 63 nonempty combinations. Under the specified assumptions, the number of feasible portfolios decreases from 37 in the inertial scenario to 19 in the moderate scenario and 2 in the stringent scenario. The mere presence of a decarbonization component does not determine project priority. Operational projects gain portfolio significance when they improve resource use and carbon performance. The capital-intensive project combining value-added gas processing with CCUS plays a different role: for the project set considered, it becomes necessary only when the minimum portfolio carbon requirement exceeds 1.90 but does not exceed 2.40 million t CO2e/year. Above this level, no feasible portfolio can be formed. This threshold interval is case-specific. These results reveal how decarbonization can affect both project ranking and portfolio feasibility, highlighting an asset-level energy–environment–economy trade-off.