"Will I See the Aurora Tonight?" How Aurora Chasers Use Space Weather Information

Abstract Aurora chasers are one of the largest user groups of space weather information, using official forecasts, apps, and other resources to forecast and monitor auroral visibility. This talk will explore how aurora chasers use space weather information and highlight ways to improve communication between forecasting agencies and the public. A survey of nearly 1,000 aurora chasers asked respondents to rank the sources and data they rely on, and scenarios tested how they read uncertainty. Respondents at every experience level preferred a forecast that explains its uncertainty over a more definite one, by more than four to one overall. A review of 11 popular aurora apps, a common link between forecasts and chasers, examined their data labels, the readability of their explanations, and how they convey auroral visibility. Kp and OVATION maps were most prominent, though Kp was not designed to predict visibility and apps used different versions that could disagree at the same moment. Many apps also omitted whether a value was measured or modeled, or how current it was. Working with app developers could help chasers learn to read the data and improve what is often the first experience aurora chasers have with the space weather enterprise. The final part of this talk will turn to local broadcast meteorologists, who can help communicate auroral visibility as storms unfold and whose large audiences can show how the public reads forecasts. Many aurora chasers want to help forecasting agencies test new forecast formats and visualizations. They include farmers, oil field workers, and other technical professionals whose stories of the aurora and of space weather's effects on their work can help agencies like SWPC show their value to policymakers. Working with aurora chasers, app developers, and broadcast meteorologists can make space weather forecasts clearer for everyone asking, "Will I see the aurora tonight?" Speaker bio Vincent Ledvina is a Space Physics Ph.D. student at the University of Alaska Fairbanks studying the aurora. He is an NSF Graduate Research Fellow and a NASA FINESST award recipient. His research primarily focuses on auroral beads and substorms, and he is also passionate about citizen science. Originally from Minnesota, Vincent has been chasing the aurora since he was 16 and became interested in space weather while pursuing a B.S. in Physics at the University of North Dakota. Known online as "The Aurora Guy," he spends his free time translating space weather and aurora science for more than one million followers and running aurora tours and photography workshops in Fairbanks. Vincent is also editing an AGU book on aurora chasing and completing a graduate certificate in space weather science at Millersville University.