Determinants of farm exit intentions: evidence from rural areas in Tuscany

Farm exit is a major concern in rural areas where agricultural decline may contribute to land abandonment and weaken territorial vitality. This study examines the factors associated with farmers' intentions to cease agricultural activity, with particular attention to perceived community well-being. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews with 203 farm owners across six rural areas of Tuscany, Italy. A logistic regression model integrates farmers’ sociodemographic characteristics, farm economic and structural features, production orientation, territorial location, and a multidimensional index capturing perceived access to essential services and opportunities for social interaction and participation. The results indicate that approximately one-third of the interviewed farmers intend to abandon agricultural activity, with substantial heterogeneity across territories. Exit intentions are positively associated with age and negative perceived profitability, whereas higher farm revenues and the number of children, used as a proxy for potential intergenerational continuity, are negatively associated with them. Differences also emerge according to farm size and production specialisation. Beyond these individual, economic, structural, and territorial factors, better perceived access to services and opportunities for community participation is associated with lower exit intentions. The findings suggest that expected farm continuity depends not only on economic viability and potential generational renewal but also on the liveability of the surrounding rural context. Policies supporting agricultural continuity should therefore combine farm-level measures with place-based interventions aimed at improving essential services, opportunities for community participation, and territorial cohesion.