Population Viability of the Anatolian Chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra asiatica) Under Extreme Winter Scenarios in Northeastern Türkiye

The Anatolian chamois (Rupicapra r. asiatica) has a restricted distribution, and population-specific demographic information remains limited. This study assessed temporal population patterns and long-term viability of the Anatolian chamois population in the Altıparmak Game Reserve, northeastern Türkiye. Annual observations were conducted at fixed vantage points during the mating season from 2019 to 2025. The mean annual observed count was 322.3 ± 18.7 individuals, with an ecological density of 1.7 ± 0.1 individuals/100 ha. Adult females constituted 38.1%, adult males 29.4%, kids 22.2%, and individuals of unknown sex or age 10.3% of observations. Mean annual population growth and apparent survival were 1.0 ± 0.1 and 0.8 ± 0.1, respectively. Mean productivity was 0.58 ± 0.05 kids per adult female, and the adult sex ratio was 0.78 ± 0.13 adult males per adult female. No significant temporal trend was detected in annual observed counts during 2019–2025 (p = 0.902). Population viability analysis evaluated hypothetical extreme-winter scenarios occurring every 5, 10, 20, and 50 years over 100 years. Population persistence decreased with increasing winter frequency, with the five-year scenario resulting in a survival probability of 80%. Sensitivity analysis indicated that adult female survival was an influential demographic parameter in long-term projections. These findings provide demographic information for the monitored population and indicate that long-term persistence may be sensitive to the assumed frequency of extreme-winter events.