Regional disparities in winter wheat production potential and stability under future climate change: Evidence from rainfed and irrigated systems in China

Winter wheat is highly sensitive to climate change; however, the regional responses of yield potential and yield stability to future climate change and extreme climatic events across China’s major production regions, along with the underlying driving factors, have not yet been fully identified. In this study, the CERES-Wheat model was driven by meteorological data from 20 global climate models (GCMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) to evaluate regional variations in winter wheat yield potential and stability under rainfed and full irrigated conditions across China during the baseline (1981–2020) and future (2021–2100) periods. Yield stability was defined as the ratio of the multi-year mean yield to its standard deviation over the study period. The relative importance of climatic variables to projected changes in winter wheat yield were further quantified. The results indicate that the yield potential and stability of winter wheat are expected to be higher in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Loess Plateau than in Southwest China and Xinjiang under future climate scenarios. Under irrigated conditions, the proportions of high-yielding and high-stability sites are projected to increase by 1.7%–3.6% and 0.6%–1.7%, respectively, while those of low-yielding and low-stability sites are projected to decrease by 9.4%–13.5% and 2.4%–3.5%, respectively, relative to the baseline period. Notably, a consistent decline in winter wheat yield is projected for the Southwest China region under both rainfed (17.7–28.9%) and irrigated (4.7–10.5%) conditions. The yield gains from irrigation are limited in this region. Mean climatic variables were identified as the primary drivers of yield variation, with a relative importance ranging from 31.0% to 41.0%. In addition, among extreme climatic factors, extreme heat and extreme drought showed relatively high importance, with relative importance values of 18.0–35.0% and 15.0–27.0%, respectively. The development of spatially tailored agricultural management strategies for future climate adaptation is scientifically informed by the results of this study.