Spatial Differentiation Characteristics of Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Pressure in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China

Alleviating the cultivated land pressure in the black soil region of Northeast China is an essential requirement for safeguarding national food security. Taking 34 prefecture-level and above cities in the Northeast China black soil region from 2008 to 2022 as the research samples, this study comprehensively adopts the spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model and K-means clustering model to reveal the driving factors and spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure in the study area. The research conclusions are as follows: (1) Temporally, the cultivated land pressure in the Northeast China black soil region presents a fluctuating downward trend, and 41% of the cities are in a pressure-free state. Spatially, it shows an unbalanced pattern ranked as Heilongjiang > Liaoning > Jilin > the four leagues in eastern Inner Mongolia. (2) Cultivated land pressure in the Northeast China black soil region is affected by multiple factors, including local finance, agricultural mechanization, agricultural infrastructure, urbanization, chemical fertilizer application, and population loss, with the influence intensity of each factor exhibiting obvious spatial heterogeneity. (3) Based on the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors of cultivated land pressure, the study area can be classified into six types: the Songnen Plain, dominated by local fiscal health and agricultural mechanization investment intensity; the Sanjiang Plain, dominated by the degree of population loss; the Liaohe Plain, dominated by the urbanization level; the Changbai Mountain–Eastern Liaoning region, with balanced driving effects of all influencing factors; the Western Windy–Sandy Region, dominated by agricultural mechanization investment intensity; and the Greater Khingan Range region, dominated by the chemical fertilizer application level. There are significant differences in cultivated land pressure and its driving factors among subregions of the Northeast China black soil region. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate differentiated cultivated land pressure mitigation strategies according to local actual conditions.