Suicide mortality and suicide method trends in the Region of the Americas, 2015–2021: a population-based time-series analysis of progress toward a one-third reduction target

Background The suicide mortality rate is a key global indicator for monitoring progress toward improved mental health and well-being under the Sustainable Development Goals, and the World Health Organization Comprehensive Mental Health Action Plan has set an explicit suicide-specific target of reducing the age-standardized suicide mortality rate by one-third by 2030 (with a baseline year of 2015). This study assessed temporal trends in suicide mortality and suicide methods in the Region of the Americas using average annual percent change (AAPC) for the period 2015–2021. Methods Age-standardized and age group-specific suicide mortality rates (per 100,000 population) for the region, subregions, and by country for 2000–2021, and proportion of suicides by method by country, overall and by sex for 2015–2021, were obtained from the World Health Organization Global Health Estimates and the Pan American Health Organization Regional Mortality Database, respectively. In this population-based time-series analysis, AAPC was estimated using joinpoint regression analyses. The AAPCs for suicide mortality rates between 2015 and 2021 were compared with the compound annual reduction required to achieve a one-third reduction by 2030 (−2·67%). Findings The regional age-standardized suicide mortality rate increased by 1·05% (95% CI: 0·85%, 1·26%; p ≤ 0·0001) annually on average between 2015 and 2021, driven by males (AAPC: 0·99%, 95% CI: 0·81%, 1·17%; p ≤ 0·0001), as the rate among females remained relatively stable during this period (AAPC: 0·02%, 95% CI: −1·38%, 1·45%; p=0·97). Only 10 countries (30·3%; out of 33) showed significant declines exceeding the 2·67% annual reduction needed to achieve the one-third reduction target by 2030. Across countries, the distribution of recorded suicide methods shifted over time, with increases in the proportion of suicides involving hanging and decreases in the proportions involving firearms and poisoning. Interpretation Suicide mortality in the region is rising, and the target of a one-third reduction by 2030 is unlikely to be met regionally; however, progress varies considerably across countries, with 10 (30·3%) making substantial progress toward the target. Urgent, coordinated action is needed in the countries with high and increasing suicide mortality rates, combining evidence-based means restriction strategies with broader upstream interventions that address social, economic and health-system determinants of suicide risk. Funding None.