Between migration and in-situ adaptation: environmental change and adaptation intentions in Western Zambia

Abstract This paper combines Protection Motivation Theory with mobility–immobility scholarship in order to examine how psychological, experiential and structural factors are associated with migration and in-situ adaptation intentions under environmental stress. Using survey data from 460 respondents from smallholder households in Zambia’s Western Province, structural equation modelling shows that migration and in-situ adaptation intentions are positively correlated in our sample, indicating that stronger intentions towards one strategy do not necessarily correspond to weaker intentions towards the other. Among Protection Motivation Theory constructs, perceived self-efficacy shows the clearest positive association with both outcomes, while other cognitive components show limited associations. Contextual factors, particularly village remoteness from the provincial capital, socioeconomic status and migration networks, are also associated with adaptation intentions. Easier coping with past environmental events is negatively associated with both outcomes. Overall, the findings show the value of combining Protection Motivation Theory with a broader mobility–immobility perspective in order to understand how perceptions of environmental stressors, perceived capacity to respond and structural conditions relate to migration and in-situ adaptation intentions.