Inseparability in Disaster Risk Science: Accounting for Coupled, Co‐Evolving Systems
Contemporary risk landscapes are shaped by systemic phenomena-compound disasters, cascading failures, non-stationarity, and cross-domain crises-that challenge conventional frameworks. While the classical risk equation (Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability × Exposure) remains a useful heuristic, it relies on a separability assumption that breaks down in feedback-rich, co-evolving systems. This failure reflects a familiar diagnosis: risk can be mistaken for a complicated problem, decomposable and optimizable, when it is a complex one, characterized by emergence and adaptation. Our contribution herein is not this distinction but its analytical consequence. Drawing on an interdisciplinary workshop on systemic risk and resilience, we propose inseparability as a foundational premise for disaster risk science. Hazard, exposure, and vulnerability might be better understood as dynamically coupled processes rather than separable variables. We derive implications across four axes: reframing vulnerability as a non-ergodic system property; addressing cross-scale dynamics; shifting from risk control to adaptive management; and treating knowledge co-production as a scientific necessity.
Authors
- Sara Madureira Constantino (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-5885)
- Elisabeth Krueger (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0630-3363)
- Reinhard Mechler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2239-1578)
- Elco Koks (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4953-4527)
- Dora Elia Ramos Muñoz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8752-8865)
- Pia‐Johanna Schweizer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2273-4366)
- Robert Šakić Trogrlić (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6627-873X)
- Stefan Kienberger (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4800-4516)
- Haorui Wu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6314-0452)
- Ryan Michael McGranaghan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9605-0007)
- Alexandre Dunant (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8961-5292)
- G. Falmagne (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6762-3937)
- Silvia De Angeli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8293-9502)
- Stefan Hochrainer‐Stigler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9929-8171)
- Massimiliano Pittore (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4940-3444)
- Marleen de Ruiter (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5991-8842)
- Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7919-5549)
- Liz Jessica Olaya Calderon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-2169-9019)
- Anqi Zhu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3316-6128)
- Thi Thu Ha Vo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9780-4833)
- Shahar Livne (24376108) (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7874-6580)
Institutions
- Ben-Gurion University of the Negev (IL)
- Beijing Institute of Technology (CN)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Dalhousie University (CA)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Eurac Research (IT)
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory (US)
- Trinity College Dublin (IE)
- Climate Analytics (DE)
- Technological University Dublin (IE)
- Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux (FR)
- GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (DE)
- El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (MX)
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- University of Amsterdam (NL)
- Université de Lorraine (FR)
- Stanford University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Risk Analysis
- Published
- 2026-10-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70386
- Primary Topic
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00