Dissecting yield–stability trade-offs in bread wheat under contrasting moisture regimes through integrated multi-environment analysis

Wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) underpins global food security due to its high yield potential and broad adaptability, yet increasing climate variability in Mediterranean semi-arid regions necessitates cultivars that reconcile productivity with phenotypic resilience. A complementary analytical framework was applied to investigate genotype × environment interaction (GEI) and identify adaptive ideotypes among 12 bread wheat genotypes evaluated across four growing seasons (eight environments), including a severe natural drought–heat co-occurrence. Combined ANOVA attributed 75% of the total variation to environment, with significant GEI warranting the application of complementary stability metrics. Conventional GGE biplot analysis identified G5 as high-performing under favorable conditions; however, integration with BLUP-based stability indices (WAASB/WAASBY) and multi-trait selection tools (FAI-BLUP) exposed a pronounced productivity–stability trade-off. Genotypes G5 and G8 exhibited marked yield declines under moisture-limited regimes, whereas G4 and the landrace Sardari (G11) demonstrated superior homeostatic properties. The complementary use of these analytical approaches provided a comprehensive evaluation of genotype productivity, stability, and adaptation across contrasting moisture environments. Notably, the synthetic-derived line Azaran (G1) emerged as a stress-specialized ideotype under the most restrictive environments, underscoring the strategic value of wild-relative introgressions for conferring terminal stress tolerance. Overall, G4 was identified as the most broadly adapted genotype, whereas G1 showed specific adaptation to severe drought conditions. The combined application of complementary stability analyses provides useful information for identifying wheat genotypes with favorable productivity and stability under contrasting moisture environments.