Infrastructure capacity as the binding constraint in Nigeria–Europe green hydrogen export under supply and demand uncertainty: A two-stage stochastic MILP

Green hydrogen is central to Europe's energy transition, but Nigeria-Europe export corridors lack a joint operations-research treatment of supply- and demand-side uncertainty, leaving capacity-sizing decisions without quantitative grounding. This study addresses that gap with the first two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programme (MILP) for a Nigeria-to-Europe liquid hydrogen (LH2) corridor. Solved in GAMS/CBC, the optimum selects Z1 (Kano/Jigawa) and Z2 (Sokoto/Kebbi) at 5.0 GW proton exchange membrane (PEM) capacity each, consolidates liquefaction at Apapa Port (406.8 kt LH2/yr), and achieves 84.6% weighted demand fulfilment at 1960.7 M USD/yr. The value of the stochastic solution is negative (VSS = −175.6 M USD, −9.8%), widening under capacity relaxation - an asymmetric penalty-cost structure, not scarcity; a low expected value of perfect information (EVPI, 1.2%) confirms infrastructure, not demand information, binds reliability. Capacity expansion, not improved forecasting, should anchor Nigeria's export policy.