Response of ecosystem service values to landscape changes in a highly threatened dry forest region in Mexico

This study analyzed land use and land cover changes in the San Nicolás-Cuitzmala watershed, Mexico, from 2017 to 2025 using Sentinel-2 imagery and InVEST software. Results revealed a significant landscape transformation characterized by the loss of approximately 30,000 hectares of tropical dry forest (TDF), which was primarily converted into grassland. While the Total Ecosystem Services Value (TESV) showed a slight numerical increase, rising from $3.642 billion to $3.721 billion, this shift masks critical ecological trade-offs. The expansion of grasslands increased pollination values but resulted in a 4.00% reduction in total carbon stocks, decreasing from 82.45 Tg C to 79.15 Tg C. Even within the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve, TDF conversion was evident along its northern boundary. These findings suggest that while certain economic valuations may rise, the loss of TDF represents a net decline in vital regulating services, such as carbon sequestration and biodiversity support. The study emphasizes the urgent need for integrated land management and robust conservation strategies to protect remaining dry forests from anthropogenic pressures and ensure the long-term sustainability of the watershed’s essential ecosystem functions.