Patterns and Drivers of CO2 Emissions from Road Freight Transport in China

Climate change is driving the accelerated green and low-carbon transition of the transport sector, which is crucial to the realization of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on 41,601 micro-level freight vehicle observations covering 30 provinces across China over the first three quarters of 2025, matched to county-level climate and nighttime-light data, this study uses IPCC emission factor methodology to calculate CO2 emissions and analyzes the emission patterns and drivers through descriptive spatial analysis and county-fuel-type fixed-effects regressions, respectively. In the observed sample, diesel vehicles account for the largest share of total CO2 emissions, with high-emission areas concentrated in eastern coastal regions, while battery electric vehicles (BEVs) exhibit the lowest CO2 emission intensity (CEI), at 39 g CO2/t·km compared with diesel at 50 g CO2/t·km. However, this advantage is compromised in high-carbon grid regions. Temperature negatively impacts CEI, an effect primarily mediated through transport efficiency rather than energy consumption per 100 km. Low temperatures considerably increase CEI, with colder zones experiencing emission intensity increases of up to 7.1%. Newer models and larger marked tonnage also significantly lower CEI. These findings provide empirical support for formulating sustainability-oriented, differentiated climate-resilient road freight decarbonization policies.