Migraine burden inequities and 2050 projections in Africa based on global burden of disease 2023

This study analyzes migraine burden and health inequalities across 53 African Union countries from 1990 to 2023 using Global Burden of Disease data, with projections to 2050. Inequality was quantified via the slope index of inequality, health system efficiency via stochastic frontier analysis, and future trends via Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average modeling. In 2023, prevalent cases reached 180.4 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 152.2–211.3), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) 6.1 million (95% UI: 4.1–8.5), with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 13,385.8 per 100,000. From 1990 to 2023, rates increased steadily (estimated annual percentage change: 0.16 for prevalence; 0.18 for DALYs). The burden peaks in young adults and women, with widening regional disparities. Cases are projected to nearly to 375.7 million by 2050. These findings establish migraine as an escalating public health priority in Africa, underscoring the urgent need for targeted policy interventions and health system strengthening across the continent.