A structured ex-post synthesis of Nordic power sector pathways from independently developed scenarios

Nordic energy planning draws on scenarios developed for different purposes, making it difficult to determine what their results support when considered together. A structured review of 63 studies relevant to comparing energy system models and scenarios identifies six study-design families and informs an ex-post synthesis of eight model-scenario cases from six model families. Ex-post synthesis documents recurring developments and contrasts, while attribution to particular assumptions requires a controlled comparison. The synthesis covers Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden in 2030, 2040 and 2050, retaining each case's identity and context. Between 2030 and 2050, onshore wind capacity increases by more than 0.1 GW in 20 of 21 eligible national trajectories, and solar PV capacity does so in 17. Modelled net onshore wind capacity additions by 2050 equal 11–654% of national total generating capacity in 2020. Total installed capacity varies approximately sevenfold in Finland, and technology portfolios differ substantially. In Norway, LUT-ESTM and OSeMBE report similar final electricity demand in 2050, at 218 and 220 TWh/yr, but 109 and 51 GW of onshore wind and 704 and 302 TWh/yr of power generation, respectively. Reported power-supply CO 2 emissions are numerically lower in 2050 than in 2030 in all 20 eligible trajectories, but zero and negative endpoints reflect different scenario targets, sectoral boundaries and accounting conventions. The pathways are therefore most useful as contrasting planning cases rather than as a common forecast. Nordic grid, permitting and spatial-planning decisions should consequently be assessed across several wind-deployment scales, with explicit assumptions about electricity use.