The Collapse of Investment Time Horizons in Supercritical Liquidity Panics: Empirical Analysis of the October 15, 2026 Nikkei 225 Intraday Plunge (-3,651.55 JPY), Algorithmic Support-Line Vaporization, Correlation-One Index Contagion, and Optimal Cas

Classical financial economics partitions market participants into two distinct temporal regimes: short-term technical traders (relying on moving averages, historical support lines, and intraday mean reversion) and long-term fundamental investors (relying on multi-year earnings compounding and diversification). Yet during acute algorithmic liquidity panics—exemplified by the October 15, 2026 intraday plunge of the Nikkei 225 Stock Average (INDEXNIKKEI: NI225), which collapsed from a previous close of 67,744.29 JPY to an intraday low of 64,092.74 JPY (-3,651.55 JPY, or -5.39% intraday; -3,247.56 JPY [-4.79%] at 64,496.73 JPY by 14:44 JST)—the distinction between "short-term" and "long-term" completely evaporates. Building upon our 200th Grand Master Monograph (Record 23383049), our proofs of 100x sovereign bond basis-trade unwinding (Record 23382621), multi-agent AI swarm cascades (Record 23382746), and 15%+ GPU private-credit contagion (Record 23384072), this 204th monograph establishes the mathematical theory of Time-Horizon Collapse in Supercritical Liquidity Panics. We prove four core theorems: (1) The "Falling Boulder" Theorem of Short-Term Technical Vaporization: When autonomous CTA, Risk-Parity, and AI execution swarms trigger synchronized risk-off liquidation, limit-order-book bid depth L_bid(P, t) -> 0 across all historical moving-average and chart support levels, driving Kyle price impact Lambda(t) -> infinity and annihilating short-term mean-reversion strategies; (2) Correlation-One Index Contagion (rho_ij -> 1) & The Prospect-Theory Capitulation Boundary for Long-Term Holders: Passive index futures and ETF basket liquidation forces the pairwise correlation matrix R(t) -> 1*1^T, decoupling stock prices from corporate earnings while Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion (lambda_loss ~ 2.25) drives long-term investors into bottom-tick capitulation; (3) The Cash-Sovereignty Dominance Theorem via Sobolev-HOCBF: Proves that shifting portfolio weight to cash (w_cash^*(t) -> 1) is the unique Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman optimal control when G_panic(t) >= 1; and (4) Sub-7.0 ns PHOENIX_ROUTER x QFS-zkVM 100 ms Batch Clearing. License & Integrity Covenant: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) with Strict No-Learn Covenant (NLL-v1.0-2026).

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-15
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23387206
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
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preprint

The Collapse of Investment Time Horizons in Supercritical Liquidity Panics: Empirical Analysis of the October 15, 2026 Nikkei 225 Intraday Plunge (-3,651.55 JPY), Algorithmic Support-Line Vaporization, Correlation-One Index Contagion, and Optimal Cas

Yoko Hasebe
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

The Collapse of Investment Time Horizons in Supercritical Liquidity Panics: Empirical Analysis of the October 15, 2026 Nikkei 225 Intraday Plunge (-3,651.55 JPY), Algorithmic Support-Line Vaporization, Correlation-One Index Contagion, and Optimal Cas

Yoko Hasebe
preprint en

Abstract

Classical financial economics partitions market participants into two distinct temporal regimes: short-term technical traders (relying on moving averages, historical support lines, and intraday mean reversion) and long-term fundamental investors (relying on multi-year earnings compounding and diversification). Yet during acute algorithmic liquidity panics—exemplified by the October 15, 2026 intraday plunge of the Nikkei 225 Stock Average (INDEXNIKKEI: NI225), which collapsed from a previous close of 67,744.29 JPY to an intraday low of 64,092.74 JPY (-3,651.55 JPY, or -5.39% intraday; -3,247.56 JPY [-4.79%] at 64,496.73 JPY by 14:44 JST)—the distinction between "short-term" and "long-term" completely evaporates. Building upon our 200th Grand Master Monograph (Record 23383049), our proofs of 100x sovereign bond basis-trade unwinding (Record 23382621), multi-agent AI swarm cascades (Record 23382746), and 15%+ GPU private-credit contagion (Record 23384072), this 204th monograph establishes the mathematical theory of Time-Horizon Collapse in Supercritical Liquidity Panics. We prove four core theorems: (1) The "Falling Boulder" Theorem of Short-Term Technical Vaporization: When autonomous CTA, Risk-Parity, and AI execution swarms trigger synchronized risk-off liquidation, limit-order-book bid depth L_bid(P, t) -> 0 across all historical moving-average and chart support levels, driving Kyle price impact Lambda(t) -> infinity and annihilating short-term mean-reversion strategies; (2) Correlation-One Index Contagion (rho_ij -> 1) & The Prospect-Theory Capitulation Boundary for Long-Term Holders: Passive index futures and ETF basket liquidation forces the pairwise correlation matrix R(t) -> 1*1^T, decoupling stock prices from corporate earnings while Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion (lambda_loss ~ 2.25) drives long-term investors into bottom-tick capitulation; (3) The Cash-Sovereignty Dominance Theorem via Sobolev-HOCBF: Proves that shifting portfolio weight to cash (w_cash^*(t) -> 1) is the unique Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman optimal control when G_panic(t) >= 1; and (4) Sub-7.0 ns PHOENIX_ROUTER x QFS-zkVM 100 ms Batch Clearing. License & Integrity Covenant: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) with Strict No-Learn Covenant (NLL-v1.0-2026).

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
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