Argentine Export Tax Variation and Bilateral Agricultural Trade: Evidence on Destination Heterogeneity and Vertical Differentiation

ABSTRACT Argentina applies differentiated export taxes ( retenciones ) on agricultural commodities, and these rates have changed repeatedly since 2010. This article examines the bilateral trade effects of that variation on the taxed commodities, wheat, corn, beef, raw soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, using a gravity modeling approach. It identifies the differential incidence of a destination‐uniform export tax rather than its single average effect, which is not separately identified within a structural gravity setting. This incidence falls along two margins. Across destinations, the response to the tax differs by group in soybean oil, corn, and wheat, while no destination difference is found in soybean meal, beef, and raw soybeans. Across processing stages, the export mix moved toward soybean meal and away from raw beans. Measured against the rate itself, the average response is negative in four of the six commodities, and among these only wheat is distinguishable from zero. A uniform export tax therefore falls unevenly across destination markets and across processing stages, and bilateral trade data identify that uneven incidence more readily than a single average effect.