LAB #4062 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: XAUUSD SHORT — improves win rate from 32.5% to 48.6% (+16.0pp, n=35) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: XAUUSD SHORT — improves win rate from 32.5% to 48.6% (+16.0pp, n=35) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the XAUUSD SHORT filter would have removed the single XAUUSD SHORT trade in the window (entry=4598.79, CLOSED/LOSS). That trade was a loss, so removing it would improve the live win rate from 2 wins out of 9 closed trades (22.2%) to 2 wins out of 8 (25.0%) — a modest +2.8pp improvement. However, the filter would not have touched any other trades, so the net PnL delta is small (removing one loss, but also removing any future XAUUSD SHORT opportunities that might win). The backtest claim of +16.0pp is not reproduced here because the live window contains only one XAUUSD SHORT, and its removal barely moves the aggregate. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, if the filter truly improves win rate from 32.5% to 48.6% on XAUUSD SHORTs, you would see fewer losing trades and a higher overall win rate, but the s Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com