Policy Diffusion Under Interacting Institutional Pressures: Distinguishing Industrial-Structure and GDP-Feasibility Learning in China

The adoption of provincial carbon-trading market-construction policies in China expanded rapidly before a five-year hiatus in new qualifying policies. This study examines how industrial-structure and GDP-feasibility learning cues relate to diffusion alongside pilot designation, regional competition, and media attention. Directed provincial-pair models cover the lagged-covariate period of 2013–2022 within a descriptive observation window of 2012–2022. Industrial-structure learning has a positive association in the additive model, and the highest signed-gap quartile differs positively from the lowest quartile, whereas GDP-feasibility learning is not supported. The industrial association becomes imprecise when national-market phases are included, and multiple-testing adjustments further qualify the evidence. Interaction estimates do not consistently support signal interference. The hiatus coincides with national-market construction and a changing population of nonadopters. Exploratory provincial scenarios also remain uncertain. These findings distinguish structural learning cues from economic-capacity cues while emphasizing that nationwide institutional change must be considered when interpreting provincial diffusion.